Political scientists have named the most pro-Russian parties ahead of the Armenian parliamentary elections.

THIS MATERIAL (INFORMATION) WAS PRODUCED AND DISTRIBUTED BY THE FOREIGN AGENT MEMO LLC, OR CONCERNING THE ACTIVITIES OF THE FOREIGN AGENT MEMO LLC.

The most pro-Russian parties in the Armenian parliamentary elections are Samvel Karapetyan's "Strong Armenia," Robert Kocharyan's "Armenia," and Gagik Tsarukyan's "Prosperous Armenia." The Kremlin is counting on Karapetyan, but he cannot participate in the elections under the law.

As "Caucasian Knot" reported, on April 1, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated at a meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan that combining Armenia's course toward rapprochement with the EU and membership in the Eurasian Economic Union is "definitely impossible." He also stated that Moscow "would like" all pro-Russian political forces to participate in the parliamentary elections in Armenia.

Following the congress of the Republican Party of Armenia, which decided not to participate in the elections, three pro-Russian political forces remain in the Armenian political arena: Samvel Karapetyan's "Strong Armenia," Robert Kocharyan's "Armenia" bloc, and Gagik Tsarukyan's "Prosperous Armenia." Political scientists interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot" believe the Kremlin is banking on Karapetyan, who, according to Armenian law, cannot participate in the elections. On April 6, political scientist Edgar Vardanyan, political scientist and former member of the Armenian parliament Mikael Zolyan, political scientist Levon Shirinyan, and lawyer Vardan Poghosyan commented on the situation to a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

The Kremlin is counting on businessman Samvel Karapetyan's Strong Armenia, according to political scientist Edgar Vardanyan.

"We have three major pro-Russian forces. These are, of course, Samvel Karapetyan's Strong Armenia, Robert Kocharyan's Armenia bloc, and Gagik Tsarukyan's Prosperous Armenia. It's impossible to say which of these parties is the most pro-Russian. What can be said is this: the Kremlin is counting on Strong Armenia. And indeed, Strong Armenia is spending a huge amount of money. This party has a lot of resources. "And they're leading in the poll, meaning they're first among the opposition parties, so to speak," he said.

He'll simply be the informal leader of this bloc—that's all.

The political scientist explained what formal status Karapetyan will have if he can't run for parliament or prime minister. "Karapetyan, in essence, can't have a formal status. He'll simply be the informal leader of this bloc—that's all. And the entire campaign is focused on him, really. And it's perfectly clear that there's no replacement for him in this bloc. That is, it's a highly personalized bloc. And the whole absurdity is that he doesn't even have the right to run, participate in elections, or be prime minister. Well, they're saying that if we have a majority, we'll change the Constitution, and he'll be able to become prime minister." "That is, they'll change the Constitution for one person. That's their point of view," the political scientist noted.

In his opinion, the Republican Party's refusal to participate directly won't significantly impact the positions of Kocharyan and Karapetyan's political forces. "The RPA's refusal to participate in the elections, in principle, changes little. Essentially, they have very low ratings, including among opposition parties. One way or another, they'll support one party or another. It's unlikely they'll support Robert Kocharyan or Samvel Karapetyan. They'll most likely support Arman Tatoyan. "Overall, I don't think all this will have any impact on the election results," he emphasized.

As for the question of which political force is more pro-Russian—Kocharyan's or Karapetyan's—Vardanyan considers them equally pro-Russian. "Both teams are equally, equally pro-Russian. It's just that, as I already noted, the Kremlin has placed its bets on Karapetyan. Considering a number of factors, there are still far more negative feelings toward Kocharyan among a significant portion of the population. After all, Karapetyan was involved in helping many Armenians, he was involved in charity work, and so on. And besides, he didn't hold public office. And I think that, given all these factors, Moscow is betting on Karapetyan today. Although this party is completely worthless, and this bloc is also completely personalized, and there are these problems with participation, meaning it can't participate in the elections. And, in general, this whole picture turns out to be absurd, when Putin talks about some pro-Russian forces, saying that one of our own is sitting there, let him participate, which, of course, is impossible. Incidentally, I don't rule out that if serious violations of the Electoral Code and the Criminal Code continue to be uncovered by Karapetyan's party, then perhaps there will be certain sanctions against this force, including a ban on its activities. "This cannot be ruled out," he concluded.

Mikael Zolyan also considers Samvel Karapetyan's force to be the most pro-Russian among the opposition teams.

"In general, Samvel Karapetyan, Robert Kocharyan, and, to some extent, Gagik Tsarukyan are considered pro-Russian forces in Armenia. Serzh Sargsyan was also, in principle, part of this group, but he decided not to participate. It's hard to say which of them is the most pro-Russian, but probably Samvel Karapetyan. In the sense that he is a Russian citizen, his assets are mainly in Russia. And, in principle, he is more of a person from a Russian context, as are the people around him. But at the same time, he is vulnerable to pressure from the Kremlin, as are everyone else.   In the grand scheme of things, I don't see much of a difference. "I think all three forces are ultimately coordinated from a single center, and that center is somewhere in Russia," he said.

Samvel Karapetyan will be a kind of Bidzina Ivanishvili. That is, without the post of prime minister, he will be the de facto leader of Armenia.

In his opinion, Karapetyan's status as the leader of a political force does not qualify him for prime minister. "This is a very strange issue with Karapetyan's premiership. Obviously, he cannot be a candidate now. And for him to become a candidate, the Constitution would have to be amended. But even if we assume that his party wins two-thirds of the parliamentary seats, a prime minister will still have to be appointed until they reform the constitution. That is, a prime minister must be appointed immediately after the elections. Therefore, he really cannot be prime minister, and therefore there is a theory that they will ultimately vote for Kocharyan. "Or they could appoint some technical figure. And Samvel Karapetyan would be a sort of Bidzina Ivanishvili. That is, without the post of prime minister, he would be the de facto leader of Armenia," he noted.

The RPA's refusal to participate in the elections means that Karapetyan and Kocharyan will receive their votes. "I think the Republicans' refusal will slightly increase Kocharyan and Karapetyan's chances. That is, some people who were planning to vote for them will vote for Kocharyan or Karapetyan. Maybe even for Tsarukyan. But I don't think that's a large number of people. Furthermore, I think this refusal to participate isn't really a refusal, because they will be represented by former ombudsman Arman Tatoyan. Tatoyan, although trying to present himself as an independent candidate, is known to have been a close associate of Serzh Sargsyan. Therefore, I wouldn't say they've completely withdrawn from participation. "I would say they're simply rebranding," the political scientist explained.

Zolyan believes that both Kocharyan's and Karapetyan's teams are pro-Russian. "Basically, they're both pro-Russian. When Kocharyan was president, all his years in power saw a gradual strengthening of Russia's influence in Armenia. As for Karapetyan, he's never been in politics, and it's unclear what his views are. Theoretically, one could imagine him attempting to pursue some kind of independent policy, but his assets are primarily in Russia. I'm sure there's a wealth of compromising material of all kinds against him. That is, even if he were to try to pursue an independent policy, I think it would be very easy to prevent it. Both politicians are the most pro-Russian of all," he emphasized.

For Moscow, it doesn't make much difference which of them wins. The main thing is that it be a pro-Russian candidate who fulfills all of Russia's wishes.

Levon Shirinyan believes that Kocharyan and Karapetyan represent Moscow's interests. "There's no point in separating them; they have similar positions and similar interests, which align with the Kremlin's views. For Moscow, it doesn't make much difference which of them wins. The main thing is that it be a pro-Russian candidate who fulfills all of Russia's wishes. Therefore, discussing which of them is more pro-Russian is pointless," he said.

Karapetyan's status in these elections is that of a prime minister candidate who cannot become prime minister. "This is a political quandary. He can't even be on the party list; the law doesn't allow it. Therefore, he will be the face and wallet of a political force, but he won't be able to become a member of parliament because the law prohibits it," he noted.  

As for the influence of the Republican Party, it is zero. "They realized they wouldn't be able to secure enough votes to get into parliament, so they withdrew. And those 2-3% of the votes will be divided among all the opposition parties participating in the elections. This is insignificant, considering they want to secure a majority of the votes and elect their prime minister," he said.

Vardan Poghosyan explained why the law prevents Samvel Karapetyan from running in the elections.

"According to Article 48 of the Armenian Constitution, a member of parliament must have held only one citizenship—Armenian—for the past four years and must have permanently resided in Armenia for the past four years. Samvel Karapetyan doesn't meet these criteria. Therefore, the law prevents him from running in the elections. Putin and Pashinyan discussed this very issue." "Everything was clear and obvious there," he said.

They want to make just one change—allow a representative of the Armenian diaspora to hold public office.

The lawyer believes that Strong Armenia hopes to gain an absolute majority in parliament to pass constitutional reform. "They want to make just one change—allow a representative of the Armenian diaspora to hold public office. This is the only way Samvel Karapetyan can become prime minister, if his party secures the necessary seats in parliament for constitutional amendments," he said.