Analysts assessed the development prospects of the Middle Corridor

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Military conflicts in Iran and Ukraine have increased the importance of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor as an alternative route from Asia to Europe. Amid disruptions to traditional routes, the attractiveness of the Middle Corridor is growing.

As reported by the "Caucasian Knot," Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan intend to sign an agreement this year aimed at strengthening the status of the Trans-Caspian Corridor. This need, according to the Kazakh Prime Minister, arose "given the opening of the Zangezur Corridor."

On April 6, Turan Analytical Service editor Shahin Hajiyev, journalist and political observer Tapdyg Farhadoglu, and analyst Togrul Juvarli, a member of the Azerbaijan National Public Committee on European Integration, spoke to a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent about the prospects of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor.

The strategic importance of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route has increased sharply in recent years, and it has intensified with the onset of the Second World War in Ukraine, and now also in connection with the military escalation in the Middle East. Because the fighting has disrupted traditional trade routes and caused energy prices to rise sharply, said Shahin Hajiyev.

The Trans-Caspian route, also known as the Middle Corridor, runs from China through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, to Azerbaijan, and then through Georgia and Turkey to Europe. "But now, with the prospect of implementing the TRIPP project, or, more simply, the 'Zangezur Corridor,' another branch of the Middle Corridor is emerging, expanding its logistical capabilities," Gadzhiev noted.

Military threats to the northern and southern routes from Asia to Europe increase the Middle Corridor's attractiveness for shippers in both directions.

The political significance and political support for the Trans-Caspian route project are enhanced by its being part of China's Belt and Road Initiative, which is being promoted as a modern version of the historic Silk Road. Although the Trans-Caspian route was launched in 2017, its demand increased after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, which limited transport links between Central Asian countries via Russia, the expert continued. "And recent military conflicts with Iran have created additional uncertainty for routes through the Middle East. The war in Iran has blocked combined shipping from Central Asia through that country to the Persian Gulf and further to global markets via the sea route. Furthermore, the potential for Yemen's Houthis to become involved in the war threatens to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea. The Houthis have already posed threats in this direction in recent years, launching attacks on Israel and forcing the Americans and British to resort to military force to prevent shipping. Blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will prevent ships from China and Southeast Asian countries from reaching Europe via the shortcut through the Suez Canal. They will be forced to bypass Africa via the Atlantic Ocean, which will significantly increase transportation and logistics costs. The Middle East threatens to enter a prolonged period of uncertainty, and an end to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is also not in sight. Even if it is resolved, transport links between the two countries will not be restored anytime soon. "Thus, military threats to the northern and southern routes from Asia to Europe increase the attractiveness of the Middle Corridor for shippers in both directions," Gadzhiev noted.

Responding to a question about the potential risks to the Trans-Caspian Corridor posed by the war in Iran and whether Tehran is capable of threatening shipping to further destabilize international markets, the analysts noted that Iran's military potential in the Caspian Sea has been seriously weakened by Israeli attacks.

At the very least, Iran's navy and its military bases in the Caspian Sea were destroyed, and another Israeli strike disabled a major radar station capable of monitoring the entire Caspian region and the South Caucasus, the expert further noted. All this has seriously weakened Iran's ability to threaten oil and gas platforms in the Caspian Sea and maritime shipping, Gadzhiev believes.

On the other hand, he added, the importance of the Middle Corridor has increased for Iran itself. "The destruction or serious damage to Iran's Persian Gulf ports by US and Israeli strikes has limited its ability to navigate commercial shipping. For Iran, the importance of northern transport routes in its foreign trade has increased dramatically. This includes the North-South Corridor—along the Caspian Sea and Azerbaijan's land routes—as well as the railway and highway to Turkmenistan and further to other Central Asian countries and China. Iran, on the other hand, uses Azerbaijan's roads and railways, the Middle Corridor, to access Georgia and thence across the Black Sea to Europe. "This is a shorter and more logistically convenient route from central Iran to Europe than through Turkey," Hajiyev noted.

Kazakhstan's interest in the Middle Corridor is growing

Threatening Iran with the Trans-Caspian route is tantamount to shooting itself in the foot, according to Tapdyg Farhadoglu.

"Iran has already felt this - after the drone strikes on the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic on March 5. Azerbaijan closed its roads to Iranian cargo. This led to the de facto blocking of the western component of the North-South Corridor. Thousands of Iranian vehicles accumulated on the border with Azerbaijan. Only after assurances at the highest political level, a phone call from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and the provision of guarantees that strikes against Azerbaijan would not be repeated, did Baku open the way for the Iranians. "The Iranians also need communications through Central Asia, so it is not in their interests to threaten the Trans-Caspian route," Farhadoglu noted.

On the other hand, he continued, the Caspian countries' interest in increasing shipments along the Middle Corridor will prompt them to take measures against possible risks, including military ones, strengthen cooperation in this area, and enhance the potential of their naval, air force, and air defense systems.

Periodic strikes on Black Sea ports undermine supply stability, so Kazakhstan is seeking alternative ways to diversify export routes.

The analyst noted Kazakhstan's growing interest in the Middle Corridor. "Currently, Kazakhstan exports approximately 80 percent of its oil via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) route through Novorossiysk. However, periodic attacks on Black Sea ports undermine the stability of supplies, so Kazakhstan is seeking alternative ways to diversify export routes. Azerbaijan's energy transportation system offers the most advantage in this regard. "After delivering Kazakh oil to the western shore of the Caspian Sea, it can be transported by rail and the Baku-Supsa pipeline to Georgia's Black Sea ports, or via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline directly to oil traders on Turkey's Mediterranean coast," Farhadoglu noted.

According to him, the transit of Kazakh oil through Azerbaijan will gradually increase. "In 2025, the volume of Kazakh oil transshipped through Azerbaijan amounted to approximately 4 million tons." "In 2026, the volume could grow to 5-6 million tons amid increased production at the Tengiz and Kashagan fields," the expert said.

According to the analyst, given the expansion of the Caspian Sea tanker fleet, transit of Kazakh oil through Azerbaijan could reach 8-9 million tons in 2027, and 9-10 million tons by 2028. "As the Middle Corridor logistics expand by 2030, transportation of Kazakh oil through Azerbaijan could increase to 12-15 million tons, and with the implementation of new infrastructure projects in the Caspian, potentially approach 20 million tons. What is fundamentally important is that Azerbaijan has the necessary infrastructure to handle Kazakh oil. The BTC (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline - ed. "Caucasian Knot") alone is capable of pumping 50 million tons of oil annually, and given the decline in Azerbaijani oil production, the pipeline could be fully utilized by hydrocarbons from Kazakhstan," the analyst said.

In any case, Kazakhstan will continue to export most of its oil through Russia.

Responding to a question about whether Russia has leverage over Kazakhstan to limit its ability to export via alternative routes, the analyst replied: "Of course, it is not in Russia's interests for Kazakhstan to export oil via other routes while CPC exists. However, if the reliability of oil transshipments through Novorossiysk is called into question, and other routes offer more favorable transit rates, then it will be difficult to hinder Kazakhstan, given its growing political support from the West and China in recent years. On the other hand, in any case, Kazakhstan will continue to export the majority of its oil via Russia. In 2025, Kazakhstan exported 65 million tons of oil via the CPC. Given that oil production in Kazakhstan is expected to continue to grow, reaching 105-110 million tons per year by 2030, with 90-95 million tons exported, Russia will remain the primary export destination. Even with the diversification of transshipment routes to China and through Azerbaijan. Kazakhstan will be able to transport no more than one-third of its oil via alternative routes, and the majority of this volume will obviously be pumped via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and partially via the Atyrau-Samara pipeline, that is, through Russia," the expert noted.

The agreement between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan to develop the Middle Corridor bypassing Russia is their sovereign right, stated First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs Alexey Chepa. "This does not hinder our relations. Of course, it is less beneficial for us. But we cannot force anyone to do this through us. This is not being done to our detriment; it is being done for our own benefit. These countries have the right to interact with other countries. We cannot object to this. This is their sovereign right. And they are implementing it," Lenta.ru quotes him as saying.

Transportation via Iran has become dangerous and has decreased

Military operations against Iran have increased the importance of the Trans-Caspian route, according to Togrul Juvarly.

"Transportation via Iran from Central and East Asia has become dangerous and has decreased. In this regard, the importance of the Trans-Caspian corridor has increased. Here, according to experts, demand has additionally grown by 5-7%, and in March, cargo transportation volumes via the Caspian and Azerbaijan reached almost a million tons per month. The trade port in Baku and the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway were significantly overloaded," Juvarly said.

The Middle Corridor is more attractive to shippers from Asia for container transshipment.

However, in his opinion, to ensure the attractiveness of the Middle Corridor, participating countries need to implement a range of measures. "It's one thing when traffic increases due to a certain market situation, but it's another thing to ensure the long-term attractiveness of the route and create maximum advantages over other corridors. Given the Caspian Sea's key link in the Middle Corridor, it's necessary to address the limited port capacity. Azerbaijan has built a modern port with a maximum cargo handling capacity of 15 million tons per year and plans to increase that to 25 million tons in the coming years. It's noteworthy that while Azerbaijan's Alat port is primarily a multimodal hub for handling containers, ferries (Ro-Ro), and dry cargo, Kazakhstan's Aktau port, with a throughput capacity of 16 million tons, can handle only 4 million tons of dry cargo. And the Middle Corridor is more attractive to Asian shippers for handling containerized cargo," Juvarly said.

Furthermore, he said, the shortage of vessels must be addressed to fill the Trans-Caspian route. "We need to build ships. Currently, among the countries on the east and west coasts, only Azerbaijan has a shipyard that produces various types of vessels—tankers, dry cargo ships, and container ships. Kazakhstan is still building a similar facility. Turkmenistan also has a shipyard, but it is small. Among other things, it is necessary to agree on and establish uniform tariffs and simplify customs procedures as much as possible, since cargo passes through many countries. Considering that Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are key links in the Middle Corridor on both sides, they must first reach an agreement between themselves. Furthermore, Baku and Astana must define an action plan for expanding and modernizing infrastructure and develop investment programs. The legal basis for these measures will obviously be defined in the agreement on the status of the Middle Corridor, which Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan plan to sign this year," Juvarly said.

According to him, The Middle Corridor's attractiveness could be increased by further reducing freight transit times. "Currently, cargo from China to Europe takes an average of 18-25 days, depending on the final destination. It's important to reduce this time to a maximum of 12-15 days. For comparison, cargo from China to Europe takes 35-45 days via the Suez Canal, and bypassing Africa takes 45-60 days," Juvarly said.

The Middle Corridor creates an alternative for those who prioritize timely delivery.

However, he added, the transshipment volumes of cargo via the Middle Corridor and by sea across the ocean are incomparable. "The former is approximately 10 times smaller than the latter. However, the Middle Corridor creates an alternative for those who prioritize timely delivery," Juvarly noted.

In his opinion, The implementation of the Zangezur Corridor project enhances the advantages of the Middle Corridor, as it allows for differentiated deliveries for improved logistics. “With the implementation of the Zangezur Corridor project, there will be two routes through Azerbaijan in the western direction – through Georgia and through Armenia, and it will be possible to differentiate cargo by type. The Georgian route, given its access to Black Sea ports, can be used more for transporting oil and oil products, while Armenia – grain and other dry cargo. In addition, the opening of the Zangezur Corridor will improve the efficiency of the South-West Corridor. Thus, the presence of this railway route will allow cargo to be delivered from Iran by train without intermediate transshipment from one mode of transport to another – to the ports of Georgia,” noted expert Juvarli.

The Middle Corridor is significantly inferior to routes through Russia

A Russian expert, speaking on condition of anonymity, assessed the announcement of the signing of an agreement between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, aimed at strengthening the status of the Trans-Caspian Corridor as a PR element.

If we are seriously working on developing the corridor, we need a major multilateral agreement on a single tariff, expanding corridors for cargo transit, etc.

“The countries that are key to the project need to somehow stir up the topic of developing the corridor, so they used the meeting of the United Territories of the Caspian Sea. It’s unclear, however, what this agreement will contain and how it will help development. It won’t regulate any serious issues. And if we are seriously working on developing the corridor, we need a major multilateral agreement on a single tariff, expanding corridors for cargo transit, etc. Currently, this route, with two transshipments by sea and crossing a number of state borders, is significantly inferior to the routes from China through Russia or through Kazakhstan and Russia, which account for 90% of the turnover,” he told a correspondent of the “Caucasian” node."

Regarding State Duma Deputy Alexei Chepa's statements about a possible agreement, the expert linked it to an attempt to gain greater media visibility before the elections. "Elections are coming up, and deputies are using any means to make a name for themselves. In order to make such statements seriously, we first need to analyze the feasibility of this corridor, how much cargo it could divert, and when," he emphasized.

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