The liquidation of the Russian House was a step taken by Baku as part of its demands on Moscow in connection with the crash of the AZAL plane.

On December 25, 2024, an Azerbaijan Airlines plane flying from Baku to Grozny crashed at Aktau Airport in Kazakhstan. There were 62 passengers and five crew members on board; 38 people died, 29 survived. The airline blamed the crash on "external physical and technical interference."

Relations between Baku and Moscow are rapidly deteriorating. The backdrop is the countries' positions on the AZAL plane crash, ethnic raids in Russia, and retaliatory detentions of Russians in Azerbaijan. Baku accuses Russian authorities of extrajudicial reprisals against Azerbaijanis, and footage of the brutal detention of Russians in Baku appears to be a demonstrative response to Moscow's actions.

Following the meeting of the leaders of Azerbaijan and Russia in Dushanbe, the issue of the release of ethnic Azerbaijanis and Russian citizens arrested in Russia in Baku was only partially resolved.

The Azerbaijani side released two executives of the Sputnik-Azerbaijan agency and allowed them to leave for Russia. The Russian side released two representatives of the diaspora. However, the Azerbaijanis arrested in the high-profile case in Yekaterinburg, including the leader of the regional diaspora organization, Shahin Shykhlinski, and his son, remain in custody, and their arrests were extended after the Dushanbe meeting. At the same time, the Russian side has not held anyone accountable for the deaths. Two Azerbaijanis were killed during a brutal security forces raid in Yekaterinburg. In turn, Baku is not releasing about a dozen Russians arrested, apparently in a "symmetrical response" to the actions of Russian security forces," Juvarly believes.

In his opinion, the persecution of representatives of the Azerbaijani diaspora reflects the Kremlin's irritation with Baku's actions to generate regional formats without Russia's participation.

 "Azerbaijan is an active initiator of strengthening cooperation within the Organization of Turkic States, which also includes Turkey, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, with Turkmenistan as an observer. This format is already taking shape not only as an economic but also as a political organization with elements of establishing and multilateral military cooperation. In addition, Azerbaijan has become a member of the 5+1 format, meaning it has been accepted into the club of five Central Asian countries. Azerbaijan, together with the Central Asian countries, is developing a transport route – the "Middle Corridor" – from China to Europe, bypassing Russia. An important link in this route will be the Zangezur Corridor, dubbed the "Trump Route" thanks to US support. This project effectively changes the geopolitical landscape of the region, pushing Russia away from moderating "The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is being resolved, and control over Armenia's transport links along its border with Iran is also at stake," Juvarly continued.

Europe desperately needs energy resources from Azerbaijan amid declining supplies from Russia. All of this makes Azerbaijan an important player in the region.

He is confident that Baku is capable of withstanding Moscow's pressure, as it has secured international defense mechanisms through diplomatic maneuvering.

"Azerbaijan has a strong agreement with Turkey; it is essentially a collective defense agreement, similar to Article 5 of the NATO Charter. Over the past year, Azerbaijan has reached a strategic partnership agreement with China and is close to signing a similar document with the United States, with which it has already signed a corresponding memorandum, and working groups are now drafting a Charter on Strategic Partnership. In August of this year, Azerbaijan elevated its relations with the United Kingdom to the level of strategic partnership. Within the CIS, Azerbaijan has strengthened its position through multilateral agreements with Central Asian countries. Azerbaijan has achieved a high level of political and economic cooperation with the Arab monarchies of the Middle East. Azerbaijan has a strategic partnership with Israel, which allows Baku to count on the support of a strong Jewish lobby in Western countries. Finally, over the past year, Baku has significantly improved relations with the European Union, while actively developing a partnership with Germany, one of its main driving forces. Azerbaijan has even managed to ease tensions with France. This is because Europe desperately needs energy resources from Azerbaijan amid declining supplies from Russia. All this makes Azerbaijan an important actor in the region,” Juvarly continued.

On the other hand, he added, Russia cannot take openly hostile actions against Azerbaijan, since it needs Baku to implement transport and energy cooperation projects with Iran and, through it, with other Eastern countries.

Baku analyst Tofig Turkel believes that relations between Baku and Moscow will never be the same.

“Over the past few years, much has changed in the world and the region. After Azerbaijan restored its integrity, with Baku’s implementation of global transport and energy projects, the country’s voice on the international arena began to sound more confident. Now, global and regional power centers take Azerbaijan’s factor into account, Baku to build relations with them mutually beneficial relations on an equal basis and to act independently in their foreign policy, without looking back at Moscow, demanding from it a partnership based on mutual respect,” Turkel said in an interview with a “Caucasian Knot” correspondent.

Until the Russian side makes an official apology, punishes the perpetrators, and pays compensation, the situation in bilateral relations will remain in limbo.

In his opinion, due to Moscow’s failure to fulfill Baku’s demands in connection with the AZAL plane crash, bilateral relations are actually in a state of “unfinished crisis.”

“Obviously, until the Russian side makes an official apology, punishes the perpetrators, and pays compensation, the situation in bilateral relations will remain in limbo. Naturally, any resumption of such structures for promoting Russian influence as the "Russian House" and "Sputnik-Azerbaijan" is no longer possible. Any attempts to disavow the existence of problems or to talk about "normalizing" relations will be nothing more than declarative statements. However, open confrontation and escalation that could put relations on the brink of collapse are also not worth expecting. Political and economic relations will take place on two different planes," Turkel believes.

The liquidation of the "Russian House" confirmed the deepening crisis in political relations

Specialist in the Southern Caucasus Alexander Karavaev believes that nothing special has happened with the closure of the "Russian House" in Baku.

"The Russian House for Baku has ended up on the list of elements from the architecture of bilateral interaction that can be sacrificed. This became both a way of responding to the actions of Russian law enforcement agencies in relation to the diaspora, and a way to emphasize the new foreign policy trajectory of Azerbaijan,” he told a “Caucasian Knot” correspondent.

A paradox arose - an increase in trade turnover and the normalization of interdepartmental dialogue, with the simultaneous curtailment of the Russian House, the Sputnik office, and other events.

But at the same time, in his opinion,during the year, a certain separation, the removal of conflict situations that have become political issues into one block, and everyday economic interaction into another.

"This is where the paradox arose - the growth of trade turnover and the normalization of interdepartmental dialogue, with the simultaneous curtailment of the Russian House, the Sputnik office, and other events," Karavaev pointed out.

As for the humanitarian sphere in general, it, too, according to him, will be preserved, will change.

"Educational programs will develop through cooperation between universities, while cultural and entertainment programs will operate in the sphere of production centers and concert promotion structures," Karavaev believes..

Political scientist and member of the Adam Smith Center Council, political scientist Sergey Boyko 1  in turn believes that the Russian Investigative Committee's closure of the AZAL plane crash has damaged the seemingly improving relations between Moscow and Baku.

"Therefore, this is more of a retaliatory measure on the part of Azerbaijan. "Aliyev knows perfectly well how to interact with Russia, reacting harshly to every confrontational step," he explained to a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

The fundamental basis for improving relations has been undermined, and this will last for a long time. Moreover, today's Azerbaijan does not need Putin and is insensitive to the Kremlin's "soft power"

At the same time, political scientist Andrei Kolesnikov (included in the register of foreign agents)believes that relations between Baku and Moscowand not "Only the Kremlin could believe in the effectiveness of the conversation between Putin and Aliyev. I think the fundamental basis for improving relations has been undermined and this will last for a long time. Moreover, today's Azerbaijan does not need Putin and is insensitive to the Kremlin's "soft power," he told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

According to the political scientist, the Kremlin's strategic mistake is the habit of evaluating any post-Soviet country as a younger brother.

"So, for various reasons, the entire South Caucasus has been lost to Moscow as a zone of influence," Kolesnikov summarized*.