The political aspect of Baku's offer to supply gas to Kyiv prevails over the economic one.

Azerbaijan's capabilities in supplying gas to Ukraine are limited, but the offer to supply gas to Ukraine if necessary demonstrates Baku's growing role in the political arena. At the same time, it shows Russia new political realities, noted Baku analysts.

As reported by "Caucasian Knot", Azerbaijan is ready to supply natural gas to Ukraine if necessary and is considering the possibility of using Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities to strengthen regional energy security, said Azerbaijan's Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov on August 6.

The statement by Azerbaijan's Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov about Baku's readiness to supply gas to Ukraine, if necessary, has both political significance and economic content, said the head of the Caspian Barrel oil research center Ilham Shaban in a conversation with a correspondent from “Caucasian Knot”.

In his opinion, this statement demonstrates Azerbaijan's readiness to contribute to Ukraine's energy security.

In general, he continued, energy cooperation between Azerbaijan and Ukraine has a long history.

“In its time, Azerbaijan supplied oil for pumping through the Odessa-Brody pipeline. For almost 20 years, a subsidiary of Azerbaijan's state oil company SOCAR - SOCAR Energy Ukraine has been operating in the Ukrainian market. Until the military actions that began in 2022, it provided supplies of up to 3 million tons of oil per year to the Kremenchug refinery. SOCAR Energy Ukraine has an extensive network of over 100 gas stations in southern and western Ukraine. It also provides fuel for ships sailing on the Dnieper,” said Shaban.

Moreover, he continued, for the past five years, until January 1, 2025, SOCAR Energy Ukraine has been supplying gas to Ukraine in the amount of about 1 billion cubic meters through a pipeline from Slovakia, purchasing fuel on the exchange in Austria. Only after Ukraine ceased the transit of Russian gas to Europe on January 1, 2025, did Slovakia itself begin to experience a shortage of blue fuel and purchase excess volumes of gas.

Shaban noted that in the summer of 2025, SOCAR Energy Ukraine and Ukrainian "Naftogaz" signed an agreement for test gas supplies via another route - the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline through Bulgaria and Romania.

“At that time, a total of up to 10 million cubic meters of gas was pumped over three days. Then there was a strike on the pumping station in the Odessa region, and pumping through the pipeline was completely suspended for some time. In any case, the technical agreement did not develop into a commercial contract,” explained Shaban.

Currently, according to him, Azerbaijan has no free volumes of gas for supplies to Ukraine.

“Azerbaijani gas could be supplied to Ukraine via the Southern Gas Corridor and further through a branch from it via Bulgaria and Romania. However, if a year ago Baku could still find reserves for supplies to Ukraine, now this seems impossible. In 2025, Azerbaijan supplied 12.7 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe, and this year exports will reach 14 billion cubic meters, all of which will be taken by Germany. By the way, the total volume of Azerbaijani gas exports to Germany will reach 3 billion cubic meters,” Shaban further stated.

However, he added, it is not necessary for Azerbaijan to deliver gas to Ukraine that is physically extracted in the country.

“Another SOCAR division - SOCAR Trading is among the top ten global leaders in international oil and gas trading. It has experience in supplies not only from Azerbaijan but also from other countries. For example, it supplies liquefied gas from Africa to Malta, where a new large power plant operates on this fuel. SOCAR Trading, through supplies of liquefied gas from North Africa to a terminal in Greece, can further ensure gas pumping to Ukraine via the Trans-Balkan pipeline through Bulgaria and Romania,” noted Shaban.

He also pointed out the technical possibilities of using SOCAR Trading's underground gas storage facilities (UGS) in Ukraine to accumulate reserves of blue fuel for subsequent sale to European countries during peak winter periods.

Russia itself is indirectly a beneficiary of the sales of Azerbaijani gas in Europe. Thus, Lukoil has almost a 20 percent stake in the largest Azerbaijani gas project “Shah Deniz.”

In his opinion, deepening gas cooperation between Azerbaijan and Ukraine will not lead to a deterioration of relations between Baku and Moscow.

“Azerbaijan entered the European gas market, where Russia traditionally dominated, at the end of 2020. However, this did not prevent the signing in 2022 of a declaration of allied interaction between Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation. On the other hand, Russia lost the pipeline gas market in Europe not due to Azerbaijan's fault, and Azerbaijani gas in the European market replaced only a very small share of Russian gas, about 5-10 percent. It should also be noted that Russia itself is indirectly a beneficiary of the sales of Azerbaijani gas in Europe. Thus, Lukoil has almost a 20 percent stake in the largest Azerbaijani gas project “Shah Deniz.” And this Lukoil project did not fall under Western sanctions, unlike the company's business in Iraq. Besides everything else, Russia views Azerbaijan as a transit territory for supplying its gas to the northern part of Iran,” Shaban said.

According to another Baku analyst, Ukraine does not experience an acute need for Azerbaijani gas.

“Last summer, SOCAR sent a test batch of gas to Ukraine of about 60-70 million cubic meters. The gas was transported through Turkey and the Trans-Balkan pipeline. However, due to logistical difficulties, supplies were halted. Subsequently, Ukraine began receiving gas from European countries. In addition, Kyiv started purchasing American liquefied gas, which arrives in Ukraine from the Greek coast through a network of pipelines that is part of the so-called Vertical Gas Corridor. In other words, Ukraine has resolved its gas import issues. However, in case of necessity, during some crisis periods, SOCAR can assist Ukraine with supplies that its trading division SOCAR Trading can provide from sources in Africa,” said a Baku analyst who wished to remain unnamed.

As for the use of SOCAR's underground gas storage facilities in Ukraine, the expert doubted the practical implementation of this idea in the near future due to the limited free gas volumes from Azerbaijan supplied to Europe.

“Unless SOCAR Trading can use UGS in Ukraine for a short time in small volumes,” the expert noted.

The former general director of the operator company “Gas Transportation System” of Ukraine, senior researcher at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) Sergey Makogon noted in a conversation that Ukraine has four UGS with a total capacity of over 150 billion cubic meters of gas. Due to the war, part of the capacities is idle.

In his opinion, the UGS capacities located near the border of Ukraine with the EU could be reserved for swap operations by SOCAR Trading, which is active in the European gas market.

“The scheme is as follows: SOCAR Trading could purchase gas at a competitive price from one of the European companies associated with Ukraine's infrastructure and using Ukrainian UGS, thus obtaining the opportunity for flexible operations. Technically pulling the gas itself from Azerbaijan is expensive,” the expert was quoted by Vesti.az.

Member of the Azerbaijani National Public Committee for Eurointegration (ANOKEI) Togrul Juvarly believes that Bayramov's visit and his statements in Kyiv undoubtedly contained political messages and were aimed at emphasizing Azerbaijan's energy significance for Europe.

In his view, Kyiv is precisely the place where one can be heard attentively in European capitals.

For Azerbaijan, Ukraine appears not only as a political partner but also as a future market for companies working in construction, energy, and infrastructure in the context of post-war recovery.

The analyst also noted that Bayramov spoke about the possibility of gas supplies to Ukraine in the context of the overall expansion of the geography of Azerbaijani exports to Europe.

“As for the overall cooperation between Baku and Kyiv, for Azerbaijan, Ukraine appears not only as a political partner but also as a future market for companies working in construction, energy, and infrastructure in the context of post-war recovery,” he told a correspondent from “Caucasian Knot.”

At the same time, in his view, Bayramov's visit to Kyiv should not be seen as “Azerbaijan moving into the camp of Ukraine or the West.” Baku maintains working relations with Moscow and continues to adhere to a multi-vector policy. In this regard, he pointed out that Bayramov visited Ukraine three weeks after his visit to Moscow.

“Baku does not choose Kyiv over Moscow. It makes a more strategic choice - retaining the right to independently determine with whom and in what areas to cooperate. At the same time, it invests in Ukraine, which, according to the calculations of the Azerbaijani leadership, should not only survive the war but also become part of a new political and economic order in Europe,” said the analyst.

In his view, Russia has to accept new realities, where pressure on partners from the former USSR only further alienates them.

It is evident that Moscow is already satisfied that Azerbaijan maintains neutrality and does not allow its territory to be used against Russia for unfriendly purposes, noted the analyst.

An example of how Russia benefits from Azerbaijan's neutrality, the analyst cited a recent unofficial meeting in Baku of Gazprom's leadership with German politicians who previously held top positions in Germany.

In Baku, from July 12 to 14, a meeting of former officials from Germany and Russia on Ukraine took place, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated on July 21 in Berlin at a press conference following negotiations with German Chancellor Merz. “Our territory was used for such a meeting without our knowledge. I cannot comment on the details, as we were not present at the meeting. However, data on flights allows me to assert that a secret meeting in Baku indeed took place. If this meeting was intended to facilitate the cessation of the war between Russia and Ukraine, we can only welcome it,” Aliyev's words were quoted by Bloomberg.

From the Russian side, the meeting was attended by the chairman of the Human Rights Council (HRC) Valery Fadeev, as well as the chairman of the board of directors of PJSC “Gazprom,” former Prime Minister of Russia Viktor Zubkov, and director of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexey Gromyko, Tagesschau news service claimed.

From the German side, according to their data, former head of Angela Merkel's office during her tenure as Chancellor of Germany Ronald Pofalla, former leader of the Social Democratic Party of Germany and ex-chairman of the “German-Russian Forum” Matthias Platzeck, and former Swiss ambassador to Berlin Tim Guldimann participated.

All of them, except for Guldimann, were participants in the “Petersburg Dialogue” forum, established in 2001, RBC reports.