Analysts assessed the consequences of strikes on ships in the Taganrog Bay

Ukrainian strikes on ships in the Taganrog Bay could lock up to 25% of grain exports in the domestic market and lead to pollution of the Sea of Azov with oil products from tankers damaged in the attacks, experts interviewed by "Caucasian Knot" indicated.

As reported by "Caucasian Knot", on July 8, during a drone attack on ships in the Taganrog Bay, two people were injured, and on July 9, two tankers caught fire during a drone attack. On July 11, four ships were attacked, one of which was a tanker carrying methanol. A sailor from a technical vessel died. On July 12, the governor of the Rostov region reported that another tanker, this time empty, was damaged while entering the Azov-Black Sea maritime canal. In total, as a result of the July attacks, according to Slyusary's reports, at least nine vessels were damaged, including at least six tankers.

The strikes by Ukraine on ships in the Taganrog Bay aim to cut off Crimea from fuel supplies and worsen supplies to the south, but this goal has not been achieved, believes military expert Aleksandr Kramchikhin.

“There will be no cessation of navigation, of course. And it will not affect Russian farmers, grain producers either, it’s not that scale. The main goal of Ukraine is psychological impact on the population of Russia,” Kramchikhin told a correspondent of “Caucasian Knot”.

As a result of the attacks, Russia suspended navigation through the Kerch Strait and the Don-Black Sea maritime canal, noted, in turn, a member of the Adam Smith Center council 1 , political scientist Sergey Boyko.

“This route accounted for about 25% of Russian wheat exports. The immediate reaction to supply disruptions was a nearly 4% rise in wheat futures on the European exchange, to the highest level in the last six weeks. Bloomberg also reported a price increase,” he noted.

According to the political scientist, huge queues of trucks with grain have already formed in the Rostov region, which cannot get to the ports. “If the problem persists, grain locked in the domestic market may become cheaper, and producers will incur losses. Reorienting to deep-water ports of the Black and Baltic Seas in the midst of the season is significantly complicated and leads to increased logistics costs,” Boyko explained.

Moreover, he said, the defeat of the “feeder” fleet (ships of the “river-sea” class) complicates the transshipment of Russian oil to large tankers in the Black Sea. “This has also significantly complicated the supply of oil products to Crimea,” Boyko summarized.

Among the vessels damaged by Ukrainian drones were river-sea class tankers that carry fuel oil for transshipment to large tankers and for export, as well as tankers with gasoline and diesel fuel for supplying Crimea, noted industrial ecology expert Igor Shkradyuk.

The total cargo turnover of Russian ports in the Azov-Black Sea basin in 2025 amounted to 265 million tons or almost a third of the total volume of maritime transport in Russia, he reminded. “The mass of exports by sea exceeds the mass of imports by 12 times. Through the Kerch Strait, cargoes from the ports of Rostov-on-Don, Temryuk, and Kavkaz pass (30-40 million tons per year). More than half of this amount consists of oil and oil products. In 2025, the transshipment of Azov Sea ports decreased by a quarter, partly due to military risks,” Shkradyuk emphasized.

The strikes on ships in the Sea of Azov have led to a complete cessation of fuel supplies to Crimea by sea, he believes. “Now, in southern Russia and Ukraine, the harvest has just begun. Previously, Russia exported 35-45% of the grain grown, Ukraine 70-80%. Both countries exported mainly through Black Sea ports. Unlike Ukraine, Russia can no longer transport grain to Europe by rail. Tens of thousands of trucks are transporting just-harvested grain to ports for export, while navigation and export have ceased,” Shkradyuk explained.

In addition to the fuel shock, farmers are facing a commercial one, the analyst pointed out. “Until now, in the countryside and in the agricultural business, it was possible to live without paying attention to military actions. Now it is not possible,” Shkradyuk added.

He also reminded that millions of families, taking their children to the sea in summer, have redirected from the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov due to pollution in Anapa and Tuapse. “Discharges of fuel oil, gasoline, and diesel fuel have been noted near Taganrog, Temryuk, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk. An expansion of the scale of oil pollution and serious environmental consequences should be expected,” Shkradyuk summarized.

Materials on the consequences of the fuel oil spill have been collected by "Caucasian Knot" on the page "Ecological Disaster in Kuban".