Political scientists in Baku explained the significance of strikes on Ukrainian SOCAR facilities.

Russian strikes on SOCAR facilities in Ukraine are viewed by Baku as part of a broader set of disagreements and an attempt to coerce Azerbaijan into abandoning its own foreign policy course, analysts interviewed by "Caucasian Knot" believe.

As reported by "Caucasian Knot", in November last year, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian ambassador in the republic, Mikhail Evdokimov, to deliver a note of protest: the ministry called the attacks on the country's diplomatic missions in Ukraine unacceptable and demanded an investigation. Speaking on February 14 at the Munich Security Conference, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated that Baku had raised the issue of damage to the country's embassy in Ukraine "many times" during contacts with Moscow. He called the damage to the embassy a "deliberate attack"; the Russian Foreign Ministry stated the same day that this was "not true".

The Russian ambassador in Baku, Mikhail Evdokimov, was summoned to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry on July 6, where he was handed a note of protest regarding the drone attack on July 5 on the SOCAR gas station in the Mykolaiv region of Ukraine. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry stated that this was not the first such incident, noting previous strikes on SOCAR facilities in Ukraine, including a gas compressor station and an oil depot in Odessa. According to the Azerbaijani side, the attacks caused significant material damage, and company employees were also affected. "The repetition of such incidents, despite earlier warnings, indicates their targeted nature," the ministry's statement said.

During the meeting with the Russian ambassador, the damage from previous attacks on the Azerbaijani embassy in Kyiv and the honorary consulate in Kharkiv was also discussed - both diplomatic missions, according to the Azerbaijani side, were affected as a result of airstrikes. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry emphasized the "necessity of adhering to the Vienna Convention on the Protection of Diplomatic and Consular Missions." Azerbaijan called on Russia to conduct a "comprehensive investigation of the incidents, provide explanations, and adhere to international obligations to protect civilian and diplomatic objects."

The strikes on SOCAR infrastructure in Ukraine and Baku's strong diplomatic reaction indicate the persistence of the crisis in political relations between Azerbaijan and Russia, despite statements about normalizing relations after the AZAL plane crash, believes a member of the Azerbaijani National Public Committee for Eurointegration (ANOKEI) Togrul Juvarly.

In his view, behind the strikes on SOCAR facilities in Ukraine lies Moscow's dissatisfaction with Azerbaijan's independent economic strategy and the entry of the Azerbaijani company into traditional Russian gas markets in Europe.

"SOCAR is not just a major energy player; it embodies Azerbaijan's economic and strategic influence, including in the European energy market. Azerbaijan supplies gas to a number of European countries, where Russia was traditionally the key player. This concerns markets such as Greece, Italy, Bulgaria, partially Hungary, Serbia, and others. Moreover, Azerbaijani gas supplies via the Trans-Balkan route are being tested for reverse flow to Ukraine. For Moscow, this means losing part of its leverage over Ukraine and significantly over the European market. By striking SOCAR infrastructure, Moscow wants to convey that Azerbaijan will pay dearly for an independent energy strategy," the analyst told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

Furthermore, in his view, such attacks demonstrate Moscow's irritation with Azerbaijan's humanitarian aid to Ukraine, which is mainly expressed in the supply of energy equipment for destroyed power plants. At the same time, Juvarly pointed out that Azerbaijan's humanitarian aid to Ukraine is not a challenge to Russia.

By striking SOCAR infrastructure, Moscow wants to convey that Azerbaijan will pay dearly for an independent energy strategy

"Azerbaijan conducts a balanced foreign policy, while Ukraine is a traditional partner of Azerbaijan. When Azerbaijani territories were under occupation, Kyiv supported Baku's initiatives in international organizations to protect Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. Now Baku is assisting Ukraine. However, it is important to note that despite Baku's official position of supporting Ukraine's integrity, in votes in international organizations, Azerbaijan does not join anti-Russian resolutions and generally does not participate in votes," the analyst continued.

Russia does not want to be satisfied with Azerbaijan's course towards pragmatic relations with it and neutrality in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict - by striking SOCAR infrastructure, it seeks to pressure Baku to abandon its independent foreign policy, hoping to force Azerbaijan to coordinate its actions with Moscow. According to the expert, such a policy will only have the opposite effect.

"Recent events can only accelerate processes in Baku for further diversification of Azerbaijan's transport and energy routes, strengthening its relations with other international partners. The greater the pressure on Baku from the outside, the more important it becomes for Azerbaijan to reduce dependence on any one center of influence," Juvarly noted.

The attack on SOCAR facilities followed just a few days after a visit to Ukraine by a delegation from the Azerbaijani parliament, noted a Baku analyst, who wished to remain unnamed.

"The Azerbaijani delegation included two deputies of the Milli Majlis - Alibala Magerramzade and Erkin Gadirli, who are part of the friendship group with Ukraine. The negotiations were dedicated to the development of inter-parliamentary cooperation, humanitarian projects, and the prospects for Azerbaijan's participation in the reconstruction of Ukraine. Azerbaijan's cooperation with Ukraine does not have a military component. Baku continues to adhere to its own foreign policy line: it supports Ukraine's territorial integrity, develops humanitarian interaction, and maintains cooperation channels while avoiding direct involvement in military confrontation. Nevertheless, even such a level of cooperation apparently irritates Moscow, and Azerbaijani diplomatic missions and energy facilities periodically become targets of Russian military attacks," the expert told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

He noted that three drones consecutively attacked the SOCAR gas station, while neighboring buildings and other nearby gas stations were not hit. This gives reason to believe that the object associated with Azerbaijan was pre-identified as a target, rather than being a random result of inaccurate targeting.

"Of course, it is impossible to prove intent solely by the nature of the strike, but the concentration of several drones on one object is not a random hit, as previously stated by the Russian side," noted the analyst.

Unresolved issues with representatives of the Azerbaijani diaspora in Yekaterinburg and the failure to hold accountable those responsible for excessive actions by law enforcement during a raid that resulted in the deaths of two Safarov brothers continue to negatively affect relations between Baku and Moscow, a political observer Tofig Turkely told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

He pointed out that issues of the persecution of migrants in Russia on ethnic grounds are periodically raised in Azerbaijani media, and on July 6, at an international conference in Shusha, issues concerning "ethnic minorities" in Russia were raised, including in the context of historical memory of the persecution of the peoples of the Caucasus. Turkely called it symbolic that the organizer of the conference was the "Center for Cultural and Ethnic Diversity," created by Azerbaijani journalist Seyfaddin Huseynli (Safarov), whose two brothers died during the same raid in Yekaterinburg.

The analyst believes that Baku will not unilaterally concede to Moscow on any issue, and if it comes to resolving problems, compromises will be reached on a mutual basis.

A new round of deterioration in relations between the two countries after the AZAL plane crash was marked by ethnic roundups in Russia and retaliatory detentions of Russians in Azerbaijan in the spring and summer of 2025. Baku accused the Russian authorities of extrajudicial reprisals against Azerbaijanis, and footage of the harsh detention of Russians in Baku appears to be a demonstrative response to Moscow's actions, according to the "Caucasian Knot" reference "Crisis in Azerbaijan-Russia Relations".