Russian pressure is creating uncertainty ahead of the elections in Armenia.

Moscow's actions ahead of the parliamentary elections in Armenia demonstrate to the Civil Contract electorate that Nikol Pashinyan's policies could lead to isolation from a strategic ally, leading to an outflow of party supporters. At the same time, pressure could contribute to social cohesion and, conversely, to an increase in Nikol Pashinyan's approval ratings, political scientists noted. As reported by the "Caucasian Knot," Rosselkhoznadzor (Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance) imposed temporary restrictions on the import of flowers from Armenia starting May 22, 2026, and on fresh tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, herbs, and strawberries starting May 30. Furthermore, the import of all batches of Armenian mineral water "Jermuk" and certain cognacs and wines to Russia was suspended, and the import of fish from Armenia was significantly restricted. As of June 2, Rosselkhoznadzor extended the ban on fresh grapes and stone fruits, including cherries, and as of June 3, potatoes, eggplants, pome fruits, and dried fruits.

Political scientists debate the impact of Moscow's economic pressure on the Armenian election results

Sociologist Artur Paronyan explained the impact of Russia's sharply increasing activity and its pressure on support for the Civil Contract party.

"When analyzing the current dynamics, it is important to understand that any external pressure is perceived by Armenian voters through the prism of historical memory and deep ties with Russia. When Moscow raises fundamental issues, be it the EU referendum or economic barriers, this is not simply pressure, but a signal of a loss of trust in Yerevan's current course. A significant portion of the Civil Contract electorate, historically oriented toward traditional partnership, is beginning to realize that Pashinyan's 'era of peace' could lead to isolation from a strategic ally. "In this sense, Moscow's pressure negatively impacts voters who support Pashinyan and want to maintain good relations with Russia," he told the Caucasian Knot.

Voters may change their minds because they see that government policy directly conflicts with citizens' vital interests in the energy and food sectors.

According to him, there is also the opposite effect of mobilizing the electorate against an external threat.

"Regarding the opposite effect, it is important not to overestimate short-term emotional mobilization. If the government tries to exploit external difficulties to create the image of a besieged fortress, this resource quickly depletes as voters face the real socioeconomic consequences of the severing of ties. "In such a situation, voters may change their minds because they see that government policy directly contradicts citizens' vital interests in the energy and food sectors," he noted.

Political scientist Armen Meliksetyan is confident that external pressure from Russia is currently provoking a rallying point in Armenian society.

"In a situation where threats to sovereignty, energy supplies, and the economy are perceived as direct aggression, a significant portion of the electorate is inclined to ignore internal grievances against the government, consolidating around the current leader as the only entity capable of representing national interests." "This will minimize the electoral losses of the Civil Contract party among supporters for whom a pro-Russian orientation was only a secondary factor," he told a Caucasian Knot correspondent.

Any attempts at external pressure are perceived as interference in domestic affairs, which mobilizes even that part of society that has usually maintained neutrality.

In his opinion, pressure from Moscow could contribute to Nikol Pashinyan's ratings among undecided voters.

"Many citizens who were previously skeptical of the government's course are reconsidering their priorities in favor of protecting national dignity when faced with external threats. Any attempts at external pressure are perceived as interference in domestic affairs, which mobilizes even that part of society that has usually maintained neutrality. In the current pre-election situation, Russia's pressure is effectively turning into an instrument of political support for the current government, forcing voters to choose between loyalty to the government and a sense of external threat," he pointed out.

Russia's attempts to influence the outcome of the elections are not perceived as something extraordinary, but as a logical continuation of the policies of the main participants in the elections, who have always sought Moscow's patronage.

Political scientist Vardan Harutyunyan believes that Russian pressure and Pashinyan's rhetoric are two sides of the same coin, where both sides exploit fear and political manipulation to gain votes.

"The pro-Russian electorate of the Civil Contract is only part of the field, where political leaders are accustomed to playing on dependence on the Kremlin, so Russia's attempts to influence the outcome of the elections are not perceived as something extraordinary, but as a logical continuation of the policies of the main participants in the elections, who have always sought "Moscow's patronage. According to this logic, Russian pressure is unlikely to cause a mass exodus of voters from Pashinyan, since the opposition, represented by Kocharyan, thinks in the same paradigm of dependence, and the Prime Minister himself is only imitating a European vector for the sake of short-term benefits," he told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

Regarding citizens' perception of threats, according to Harutyunyan, a significant portion of society is captive to ideas imposed by the political elite.

"Citizens' anxiety here is not so much an expression of indignation at the 'encroachment on sovereignty' as the result of the realization that any political games in the form of Russian pressure or Pashinyan's retaliatory steps threaten stability and could lead to new upheavals. People are tired of the lack of real competition. The current and former Armenian authorities, despite their mutual hatred, share the same worldview and ideas. "They have always sought to maintain warm relations with the Kremlin and were proud of their contacts with Putin," he noted.

The arrival of Armenian citizens from Russia could significantly impact the election results

The head of the Union of Informed Citizens, Daniel Ioannisyan, is confident that the goal of Russia's actions is not Armenia's economy, but its democracy.

"Russia is trying to interfere in the elections and undermine Armenia's democratic achievements by publishing disinformation, videos that frighten the population, announcing sanctions, and so on. And the actions of Armenian forces, encouraged by Russia, are aimed at creating a sense of insecurity in society. But these actions are often not professionally executed and pursue purely psychological goals," he told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

We are talking about 6-8% of the active electorate; That is, ultimately, these voters could form a faction in parliament.

Commenting on a Reuters report that the Kremlin plans to bring up to 100,000 people to Armenia to vote in the elections against Pashinyan, he warns that this is a criminal offense.

The main influx will likely arrive in the final days of the elections. We are talking about 6-8% of the active electorate; that is, ultimately, these voters could form a faction in parliament. The main message for voters arriving from Russia is that this is punishable, that in Armenia it can lead to up to seven years in prison (referring to Article 154 of the Armenian Criminal Code - accepting an election bribe - ed. "Caucasian Knot"). "The future of Armenia should be determined by those citizens who have a natural connection to the country, who enjoy its benefits, and who contribute to the state through their taxes or service," he noted.

Observer Gevorg Babayan notes that the influx of such a large number of Armenian citizens could affect the overall election landscape.

"Yes, the election results could be different if this happens, but it will be very difficult to organize the arrival of such a large number of people to Armenia in a week." "I think interference could come in the form of pressure on those Russian Armenians who have relatives or businesses in Armenia, and they could generate pro-Russian sentiment, persuading them to vote against Pashinyan," he told the "Caucasian Knot."

In his opinion, the main violations recorded so far are the distribution of election bribes.

"The cases we are familiar with show that some people who take election bribes don't know that it's an election bribe and that it's punishable by law. They're told it's a salary, charity, or assistance, and they agree. Attempts to pressure employees of companies that have close ties to Russian businesses and are financially dependent on them have also been recorded. They're advised not to vote for Pashinyan," he said.

As a reminder, on May 27, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova reported that Moscow had warned Yerevan in an official letter of its readiness to terminate the agreement on gas, oil products, and diamond supplies if Armenia joins the European Union, RBK reports.

Russia is imposing restrictions on imports from Armenia as Armenian political forces prepare for parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7. Meanwhile, the European Political Community summit and the Armenia-EU summit were held in Yerevan in early May. In this regard, Russian pro-government mediaaccused Armenia of "betrayal" and an anti-Russian course, and Vladimir Putin noted that the Armenian authorities should decide as soon as possibleon whether to participate in the EU or the EAEU. Earlier, Putin stated that combining Armenia's course toward rapprochement with the EU and membership in the Eurasian Economic Union is "impossible by definition," and noted that Moscow "would like" all pro-Russian political forces to be allowed to participate in the parliamentary elections in Armenia.