Analysts have assessed the rate of resettlement in Karabakh and Eastern Zangezur.

Despite the construction of roads, energy facilities, and housing in Karabakh and Eastern Zangezur after the Second Karabakh War, the pace of resettlement is being held back by mine danger, a lack of jobs, and unresolved land use issues, analysts noted.

As the Caucasian Knot reported, by the end of 2026, as part of the first stage of the "Great Return" program, the authorities planned to return 34,500 families or 140,000 people to the liberated territories of Azerbaijan.

A number of factors are hindering the implementation of the announced resettlement rates.

Azerbaijan has carried out extensive work to restore the territories that returned to Azerbaijani control following the 44-day war of 2020, the co-founder of the Research Center told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent “Republic”, Chairman of the Political Committee of the Republican Alternative Party Natig Jafarli.

13:00 15.01.2026

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“And considering that until September 2023, construction and restoration work was carried out amid periodic clashes on the border with Armenia and in Karabakh itself, creating risks and threats for workers, the scale of the work accomplished cannot but be impressive. In just over five years, in seven completely destroyed and ruined districts around the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region, main roads connecting the district centers with the capital Baku and with each other have been restored. Construction of the Horadiz-Agband railway is nearing completion, an extension of which will be the “Zangezur Corridor,” or as it is otherwise known, the “Trump Route.” A number of hydroelectric power stations have been built in the region, power lines have been laid, and measures have been taken to Gasification. All this has created the conditions for the return of the population. People are returning to settlements where all the necessary infrastructure for living has already been established - water, electricity, gas, communications, and the Internet are provided. All this has made it possible to restore life in more than 40 cities and villages, returning about 30,000 former internally displaced persons to their places of residence. And taking into account those who have arrived from other regions and are involved in construction work, utilities, services, and government, then 80,000 people already live in Karabakh and Eastern Zangezur,” Jafarli said.

When asked to what extent the data on the statistics of the returning population announced by the authorities corresponds to reality, Jafarli considered the information reliable.

“The announced overall data corresponds to the population size of each settlement, if they are added up. Photo and video information is provided for each group of returnees. In addition, television channels are preparing reports on life in settlements where people have already settled. Of course, some There may be minor deviations from the official data, some may return back, but in general the statistics reflect the real demographics,” Jafarli believes.

At the same time, according to him, existing problems are affecting the rate of return of the population.

“These are, first and foremost, problems related to mine safety. Despite consistent mine clearance efforts, mine explosions continue. First and foremost, mines are being cleared from populated areas, roads, and areas around infrastructure facilities. With an orderly, gradual return of the population, it is easier to control security issues. If, however, the return of the population is forced (in principle, the state has funds for housing construction for this, and 25 billion manat (about $15 billion) has already been invested in the region - note by N. Jafarli), it will be difficult to control the masses of people. After all, farmland, pastures, and cemeteries have not been cleared of mines and unexploded ordnance everywhere, and the likelihood of inattentive people entering them will increase,” he said. Jafarli.

In rural areas, people should have the opportunity to farm.

He named the need for employment as another problem hindering the rapid return of the population.

“It’s important to provide people with jobs. Yes, returnees can find work in public institutions, the service sector, construction, and small industrial and agricultural enterprises. However, in rural areas, people must have the opportunity to farm. Currently, some jobs are offered in state and private-public enterprises. But it’s one thing to work for a small salary, and quite another to own your own production. To achieve this, the returning population must be provided with private land. In Azerbaijan, agrarian reform was carried out back in the late 1990s, and farmers received land plots for private ownership. However, internally displaced persons were deprived of this opportunity. Now it’s time to provide them with land. Having received land, people will be able to cultivate it themselves or unite into larger farms, jointly resolving issues of production, marketing, purchasing fertilizers and agricultural machinery,” Jafarli said.

Another problem is the organization of socio-cultural activities. infrastructure.

“The youth in IDP families mostly grew up in Baku and other large cities. They are accustomed to urban comforts and access to entertainment and cultural institutions. To retain young people returning, we need to create conditions for organizing their leisure time, open cinemas and entertainment centers,” Jafarli noted.

Only multi-story buildings are being built in district centers, while before the conflict, people there mainly lived in one- and two-story private houses and had their own garden plots.

 The analyst named the state’s implementation of infrastructure and housing construction as another factor slowing the rate of return.

 “The state has taken on the construction of housing. This is good, of course, for the low-income segments of the population. But in district centers, only multi-story buildings are being built, while before the conflict, people there mainly "They lived in one- and two-story private houses and had their own garden plots. Many wealthy people are willing to rebuild their own homes at their own expense. But they are not allowed to do so on the grounds that this could lead to unplanned development and the violation of urban planning regulations. However, people can be offered the opportunity to build their own homes according to established standards. While there is talk that these issues will be resolved, there has been no progress," Jafarli noted.

He pointed to the great potential for developing summer and winter tourism in Karabakh.

“Certain work is being done in this direction, with high-end hotels being built. However, for the tourism sector to develop broadly, it is necessary to encourage private initiative and create conditions for local entrepreneurs to build small hotels so that tourists with varying incomes can come and relax. On the other hand, these enterprises will be effective if supply issues are resolved. To supply hotels and restaurants, local agricultural production must be developed in the region so that delivery costs and, accordingly, service prices are minimal,” Jafarli continued.

For regions to become successful and self-sufficient, they must be home to a total of approximately 1 million people.

He believes that the Karabakh and Eastern Zangezur economic regions possess great economic potential and can bring greater profits to the country.

“The state is investing enormous amounts of money, amounting to tens of billions, in the Karabakh and Eastern Zangezur economic regions. But for the regions to become successful and self-sufficient, they need a total of approximately 1 million people. To stimulate development, it is necessary to create economic conditions for the resettlement of people, including long-term and significant tax breaks, loans on very favorable terms, subsidies, land for private ownership, and preferential rent at industrial facilities. This would facilitate the return of not only internally displaced persons, but also residents of other regions of the country, as well as Azerbaijani migrants abroad. Only by resettling 1 million people to Karabakh and Eastern Zangezur can we create an economically viable region with a labor market, consumers, and sustainable infrastructure. However, so far we have not seen any comprehensive government plans to create favorable economic conditions for living in the liberated territories,” Jafarli said.

In his In his view, the state must also take administrative decisions to facilitate the mass resettlement of people.

"It is necessary to transfer a number of major universities, government agencies, such as the Constitutional Court, and some ministries to the region. For example, the Ministry of Agriculture could be located in Aghdam, and the Ministry of Culture in Shusha, which has been declared the cultural capital," Jafarli said.

According to him, plans to resettle 140,000 people to the liberated territories by the end of 2026 are unlikely to be achieved, given the current dynamics.

"But we shouldn't get hung up on specific dates and figures. These aren't Soviet five-year plans. The important thing is that the necessary infrastructure is being created and expanded; there are roads, electricity, gas, water, and communications, and resettlement issues could accelerate at some point if the measures and plans I mentioned above are implemented," Jafarli emphasized.

Employment of displaced persons is a key issue in Karabakh

Togrul Juvarli, a member of the Azerbaijan National Public Committee for European Integration (ANOKEI) and analyst, also believes that ensuring employment is essential to accelerating the return of the population.

"Employment issues, along with mine safety, are the main factors slowing the return of the population. There is some work – in construction, maintenance of the three airports built in the region after the war, and tourism facilities. But this is not enough. Karabakh and Eastern Zangezur are predominantly agricultural regions. Some areas here are agricultural. Yes, settlements are being rebuilt very well. But these are no longer villages, but urban-type settlements. Each house is given a plot of 12 acres. But you can't develop agriculture on this plot. People need to be given land plots around the villages for private ownership. Now "An interesting situation is developing: large agricultural enterprises are being established in these regions. They are state-owned or state-affiliated, and the population is offered hired labor for low wages. This, of course, does not encourage local residents to engage in such activities, especially young people. "By returning to the city, they can earn more," Juvarly told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

People who have returned to the villages of the Agdam district complain about the lack of industrial water. Because of this, they can't even grow fruit trees on their plots.

Another problem that needs to be addressed is providing the population with water for irrigation.

"There are no problems with drinking water. But people who have returned to the villages of the Aghdam region complain about the lack of technical water. Because of this, they can't even grow fruit trees on their plots. And this is strange, since Karabakh has rich water resources. It is simply necessary to create irrigation infrastructure and restore the canals," Juvarly noted.

Mine danger has become the main obstacle to resettlement.

Journalist and political observer Tapdyg Farhadoglu believes that the difficulties in restoring Karabakh and Eastern Zangezur are related to the mine danger.

“Despite the fact that dozens of settlements and thousands of kilometers of roads have been cleared of mines in five years, a significant part of the territory may be suitable for habitation and economic activity within 10-15 years. And full restoration, especially in hard-to-reach mountainous areas, may take 20-30 years. These forecasts are also based on international experience. In Bosnia, for example, demining after the Balkan wars continued for more than 20 years. In Cambodia and Laos, mine clearance has been ongoing for more than three decades,” Farhadoglu told a “Caucasian Knot” correspondent.

Another important challenge for the return of the population, in his opinion, is the economic sustainability of new settlements. "Building cities is relatively simple; filling them with economic life is much more difficult. Without developing agriculture, industry, and services, new settlements may become dependent on government subsidies. These measures cannot be effective without encouraging private initiative. Above all, land reform must be carried out, and land must be transferred to the private ownership of rural residents. In cities and urban-type settlements, the state can create production sites and provide them to entrepreneurs for long-term lease on preferential terms with the right to free privatization after the enterprises have recouped their investment," said Farhadoglu.

In his opinion, despite the current rate of return, conditions will be created within the next decade for the resettlement of the majority of internally displaced persons.

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Aliyev urged against rushing resettlement

On January 5, 2026, in an interview with Azerbaijani television channels, President Ilham Aliyev acknowledged that housing construction in Karabakh has been "delayed" in some cases. In his view, there is no need to rush; the main thing is that the work is ultimately completed with high quality.

I have never set any specific deadlines. And I have not set any deadlines this year. When it's ready, then it will be ready.

“In some cases, the work is being delayed. But I believe we will be able to resettle people in at least 30-50 villages, and thus, by the end of this year, perhaps 120, 130, 140 thousand people will be living and working there. As infrastructure projects are implemented, additional funds will, of course, be allocated for housing construction. But everything is being done consistently, in accordance with the master plan. We are in a hurry, and at the same time, we must not rush. Because if we rush, then in some cases the quality suffers. Or those who do poor work say, ‘I was in a hurry; I should have delivered it by such-and-such a date.’ I’ve told everyone, and I can tell the public too: I’ve never set any specific deadlines. And I haven’t set any deadlines this year. When it’s ready, then it will be ready. But everything must be done well, and, of course, there must be public oversight,” he is quoted as saying. On the website of the President of Azerbaijan.

According to the Maiden Tower telegram channel, which keeps statistics on returns to each populated area, as of April 7, 2026, 29,995 people, including 7,457 families, had returned to 41 cities and villages. These statistics do not include seconded workers in the construction, medical, and law enforcement sectors, as well as students and faculty of Karabakh University. Taking them into account, the total number of people currently living in the Karabakh and East Zangezur regions is more than 75,000, according to Maiden Tower.