The Financial Times called the Kadyrovs' problems a risk for the Kremlin.
The stability of Ramzan Kadyrov's clan, which served as one of Putin's key regional power bases, has come into question amid reports of health problems for the elder Kadyrov and his desired successor, Adam Kadyrov.
As reported by "Caucasian Knot," on January 16, sources reported that the motorcade of Ramzan Kadyrov's third son was involved in a traffic accident in Grozny, injuring Adam Kadyrov and his entourage. The following day, Ramzan Kadyrov published a report on a meeting chaired by 18-year-old Adam Kadyrov. The video was recorded a day before the alleged accident, journalists discovered.
Two and a half weeks after reports of the incident, Adam Kadyrov maintains sporadic public activity on social media but has not posted any new images of himself—neither videos nor photos. Residents of Chechnya interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot" stated that they are preoccupied with numerous daily household problems and are indifferent to talk about the health of Kadyrov Jr.
The Kremlin risks losing some degree of control over events in Chechnya if a power struggle unfolds in the republic, the British publication Financial Times suggested, analyzing information about the likely health problems of the regional leader Ramzan Kadyrov and his third son, Adam.
The system of governance in Chechnya created by Kadyrov, secured by the family clan, served as "the most important support for Vladimir Putin's rule," but reports of health problems among the Kadyrov father and son have demonstrated its instability, the publication notes.
Although Ramzan Kadyrov denies all reports of his illness, the deterioration of his health is evident in video recordings that show changes in his appearance, gait, and movements; The FT's source also noted that Kadyrov has recently been using a cane.
In early January, Ramzan Kadyrov commented on rumors of his hospitalization: in a video with the Minister of National Policy, he declared a "fighting spirit" and outlined a serious training plan, including "push-ups, mixed martial arts, wrestling, boxing." However, Kadyrov didn't appear as alert and active in the recording as he claimed – he propped his head up with his hand, gestured sluggishly, and Akhmed Dudayev filled the pauses in his speech with leading remarks. On August 1, 2025, after rumors of hospitalization and a hiatus from public appearances, Kadyrov published a video of himself exercising on a stationary bike, stating that he was "gradually" returning to exercise "after a break." In the first two months of 2025, Ramzan Kadyrov took two vacations, with less than two weeks between his public appearances after the first vacation and the announcement of his second. Theories about Ramzan Kadyrov's health in 2023 are discussed in the "Caucasian Knot" report "How Kadyrov Was "Buried": Speculation on the Topic of Death".
In the current situation in Chechnya, a power struggle is brewing: political scientists are confident that in the near future, "high-ranking Chechen figures" will begin presenting themselves to the Kremlin as Kadyrov's "best successors." Moscow hopes that the situation can be resolved without "force majeure or a power vacuum," but the risks of conflict remain. At the same time, due to its extensive involvement in the military conflict with Ukraine, Moscow has limited resources to respond to a potential crisis in the Caucasus, the publication notes.
Ramzan Kadyrov would like to see his third son, Adam, as his successor, but in reality, neither Adam nor the other sons of the Chechen leader have received Kremlin guarantees allowing them to claim power in the republic, analysts previously interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot" noted. "The federal center has not given Ramzan any guarantees that power would fall to Adam. Therefore, a specific position, whether Secretary of the Security Council, like Adam Kadyrov, or Deputy Prime Minister, like Akhmat Kadyrov, does not offer any advantages to any potential successor. In any case, the final say will rest with Putin," political scientist Sergei Boyko noted.
Translated automatically via Google translate from https://www.kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/420486