Analysts have identified the reasons for the rise in fuel prices in southern Russia.

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The rise in fuel prices in southern Russia is related to numerous attacks on oil refineries, as well as maintenance and harvesting. Residents of Chechnya and Dagestan fear that the increase in gasoline prices will be followed by a surge in food and non-food prices.

Residents of Chechnya, in comments to publications on the "Caucasian Knot," complained about the rise in fuel prices in the republic. "Just a couple of days ago, AI-92 gasoline cost 68 rubles per liter, and AI-95 was selling for 75. Now [...], AI-92 gasoline is already selling at 72 rubles per liter at gas stations, and 95 at 80. Some gas station workers, as reported by car owners, claim that this is not the limit, and prices could soon jump to 100 rubles per liter," wrote, in particular, user vince.

"At some gas stations in the republic, according to acquaintances, no more than 20 liters of gasoline are dispensed per car. The operators say they are following orders from their management," wrote ... href="https://www.kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/415839#item_comment_1566242">noted by user freddy.reilly.

Analysts explain the rise in motor fuel prices

Analysts interviewed by a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent named the reasons for the rise in motor fuel prices in the southern regions of Russia in particular and in the country as a whole.

Prices are increasing in all regions due to maintenance at oil refineries, stated Mikhail Chernyshov, PhD in Economics, leading researcher, and head of the Laboratory of Spatial Development Problems at the Institute of Market Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

"Shortages and shortages are occurring in almost all regions, not just in the North Caucasus. This situation occurs almost every year during maintenance at oil refineries," he said. he.

Federal gas station networks are also experiencing difficulties.

Along with this, some oil refineries suffered from drone attacks, so the situation is temporarily more difficult, the economist noted. "Furthermore, the sowing season is underway, creating a fuel shortage, and this coincided with attacks on oil refineries. Accordingly, an artificial shortage was created. This factor, combined with seasonality, created this situation. This is not unique to the North Caucasus; it is also typical for Crimea and the central regions. "National gas station networks are also experiencing difficulties," Chernyshov explained.

Fuel price increases are occurring across all regions, noted Natalya Zubarevich, a professor at Moscow State University and specialist in regional socioeconomic development.

"The increase in gasoline prices, and fuel prices in general, has accelerated slightly across the country, but it's not wild," she said.

This is also partly due to drone attacks on oil refineries.

According to Zubarevich, gasoline supply problems in southern Russia are growing due to a number of specific factors. "They are always more acute there because there are no large refineries in the region; gasoline is brought in from the Volga. This is also partly due to drone attacks on oil refineries. And then there's the end of the summer season and the harvest. "There are always problems with diesel fuel in the North Caucasus, and now with gasoline as well," Zubarevich explained.

Overall, she said, in some regions, the distance from refineries creates fuel shortages. "It's the same in the Far East, with gasoline problems. In Russia, too, there are regions where they can't buy more than 30 liters because refineries are partially damaged and demand has increased due to the summer and increased travel," Zubarevich concluded.

Three factors are driving up fuel prices in the North Caucasus Federal District, said oil and gas market specialist Mikhail Krutikhin.

"These are logistical difficulties, the lack of federal networks, and fuel shortages, including due to the shutdown of some refinery capacities," he said.

He believes the fiscal component of petroleum product trading is also a factor. "The state's 'damper' and excise tax are increasing," Krutikhin noted.

Residents of Chechnya confirmed a significant increase in fuel prices in the region.

Ismail noted that fuel prices in the region have indeed increased, but it is readily available at all gas stations in Grozny. "95 octane gasoline costs 75 rubles, diesel costs 63 rubles at Rosneft stations. There are no restrictions, that's not true. But there are a lot of problems all over Russia, they talk about it on TV. There's no need to travel to neighboring regions; the cost of travel would be more than paying even a slightly higher price at home. "Of course, this could impact food prices in the near future, since they're transported to stores and markets by truck, and costs will increase, but so far I haven't seen any price increases," he said.

And that's good, if prices for food and non-food items don't start rising as rapidly.

Grozny resident Adam reported that prices at the city's gas stations have increased significantly. "Prices are roughly the same at all gas stations. AI-100 costs 90 rubles, AI-95 - 80 rubles, diesel - 68 rubles. Over the past two months, the price has increased by 15-20 rubles. Of course, this is very noticeable. If a full tank used to cost 2,900 rubles, now it's 3,900 rubles. I'll be spending four thousand rubles more per month than usual. "We'll have to economize somewhere. And that's good if food and non-food prices don't start rising as rapidly," he said.

According to fuelprices.ru, a website that tracks fuel price changes in Russia, as of September 29, 2025, the average prices in the Chechen Republic were: diesel - 65.49 rubles per liter, AI-92 - 66.73 rubles per liter, AI-95 - 73.76 rubles per liter, and AI-98 - 83.63 rubles per liter. According to the website, diesel has increased in price by approximately 2.46 rubles per liter (an increase of ~3.9%) in the republic as a whole over the past three months. In reality, we're talking about a price increase of 15-20%.

In August 2025, gasoline prices in Chechnya showed one of the most significant increases in Russia – a 15.9% increase, according to Rosstat data.

At the end of August, the Grozny-Inform agency, citing the regional office of Russia's Antimonopoly Service, reported on an investigation into the justification for fuel price increases in the region. Local gas station owners attributed the increase to changes in supplier purchase prices. Russian analysts note that the rise in fuel prices is not a local phenomenon, but a consequence of a nationwide upward trend related to processing disruptions caused by drone strikes, export restrictions, and logistical constraints.

Fuel prices have also increased in Dagestan

Gasoline prices in Dagestan in August 2025 increased by 12.8% compared to July. Annual inflation in Dagestan stood at 8.2%, slightly higher than the national average (8.1%), according to RBC-Kavkaz, citing the press service of the Southern Main Administration of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The rise in gasoline prices is due to rising wholesale prices and growing demand during the field season. "For motor fuel suppliers from Central Russia, Dagestan is the most remote region of the North Caucasus Federal District. This fact impacts transportation costs and the final cost of fuel. Furthermore, gasoline supply on the regional market decreased slightly in August, which also pushed prices up," explained Murad Idrisov, head of the Bank of Russia branch in Dagestan. According to the author of the "Ask Rasul" Telegram channel, small regional companies are forced to purchase fuel from large "vertically integrated oil companies." "While previously large companies left them a small price gap, now, likely due to the fuel shortage, this difference has practically disappeared," he wrote on September 25.

According to the blogger, local gas stations in the republic cannot compete with large federal players. "In Dagestan, thankfully, despite the efforts of the republic's leadership, large federal chains are not yet represented. Tatneft's much-hyped arrival also turned out to be just a franchise. The absence of federal chains allows local companies to exist. Across the republic, pricing remains roughly uniform. It may be slightly higher than that of the major players, but this ensures profitability for all market participants," he believes.

Journalist names advantages of federal gas station chains' arrival in Dagestan

A Dagestani journalist, speaking anonymously, told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent that he sees no downsides for Dagestani consumers if federal gas station chains appear in the republic, as it will bring healthy competition and stricter quality control.

Federal chains, at least to attract consumers, will lower prices, keep them relatively low, and offer some bonuses.

"As a result, federal chains, at least to attract consumers, will lower prices, keep them relatively low, and offer some bonuses. Therefore, there are no downsides for Dagestani consumers, authorities, or regulatory agencies regarding the entry of federal chains, because federal chains are generally obliged to comply with the standards, norms, and safety regulations established by law and regulations. Therefore, in this regard, the level of security at gas stations and their safety will also be slightly higher than that of existing gas stations in the republic. It's enough to recall the recent explosions that occurred at gas stations in the republic. As for Dagestani businesses, they could, of course, incur risks and losses because they will have to squeeze into the market, meet quality and safety standards, and manage their pricing policies. In this regard, they will certainly be worse off. "To say that Dagestan will lose any significant tax revenue from this, since the income of local gas station owners is spent within the republic, is, in my opinion, unconvincing," the journalist believes.

According to the journalist, consumers in Dagestan report the very poor quality of local fuel; for example, in the Stavropol Territory, the quality situation is completely different. "Therefore, the only companies that will suffer losses are Dagestani companies, which, unfortunately, have not changed their approach, quality standards, or pricing policy. These companies could have united and created their own Dagestani network, where they would share revenues and expenses and could collectively defend their rights. But they didn't want to, deciding that the current market situation suits them. Therefore, the consumer benefits, and businesses partially lose," the journalist said.

Political scientist spoke about the low quality of fuel in Dagestan

The rise in gasoline prices in Dagestan negatively impacts business, industry, agriculture, and ultimately, consumers, who pay for it all, political scientist Albert Esedov told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

"The rise in prices may be directly related to the expected arrival of federal networks and players in the region." Option one: could local gas station owners have colluded to do all this against the federal players? Option two: could the federal players have done this against the regional ones, so they could then appear as some kind of saviors? In my opinion, both options are quite viable," he noted.

What is necessary for competition? High-quality fuel. This is exactly what car owners in the republic are demanding from local gas station owners.

According to Esedov, a "horror story" has become widespread in the republic: if federal companies enter, the region will lose tax revenues, and local gas station owners, who spend their revenues within the republic, will be forced out. "What is necessary for competition? High-quality fuel. This is exactly what car owners in the republic are demanding from local gas station owners. The tax argument, considering the total revenue from gas stations in Dagestan, is completely untenable. Let's recall the same campaigns to bring local gas stations out of the tax shadows, when tax officials argued to owners that one or two officially listed employees couldn't physically handle all the work at the station. Regarding federal companies, what's stopping the regional government and municipal administrations from working to ensure that chains entering Dagestan find a way to pay taxes in the republic? This would probably resolve all issues, given that consumers would still receive high-quality fuel," the expert says. Esedov noted that people constantly complain that many gas stations in the republic are located in unauthorized areas, close to homes. "Federal chains, when entering a region, take these factors into account and plan in advance to ensure that gas stations are built in a safe location, not five meters from an apartment building," he noted.

Dagestan residents complain about rising fuel prices

With rising gas prices, it's become more difficult to fill up in advance. People have to economize, and they also have to search for gas, as it periodically disappears from gas stations, said Makhachkala resident Artur.

Taxi driver Akhmed noted that rising fuel prices are affecting his work. "Over the past month, I've spent about a thousand rubles extra on gas at current taxi rates. "That's a lot," he said.

My income has fallen due to rising gas prices.

Guide Ruslan said rising gas prices are negatively impacting the tourism business. "I meet tourists at the airport and drive them in my car to various cities and mountainous regions. My income has fallen due to rising gas prices. Furthermore, not all gas stations in the mountainous regions have the required quality of gasoline, making it difficult to fill up. Considering the decrease in tourists in the fall, I haven't raised my prices yet. "We'll see what happens next," the man said.

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