Armenian analysts assess likelihood of conflict escalation in Syunik Region

The unleashing of an armed conflict in the Syunik Region is unlikely; the Armenian party is trying to resolve the incident by diplomatic means, the Armenian military experts interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot" believe.

The "Caucasian Knot" has reported that on May 12, Azerbaijani militaries advanced three kilometres deep into the Syunik Region of Armenia and, according to the administration of the city of Goris, tried to gain a foothold in the area of Black Lake. The next day, the Azerbaijani militaries again tried to advance deep into the Syunik Region, but were stopped, the Armenian Ministry of Defence (MoD) has informed.

It is obvious that Azerbaijanis are getting deep into the Syunik Region not to solve any local problems, Robert Nazaryan, a military expert, told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent. Thus, Azerbaijan is trying to open its way to Nakhichevan, he has suggested.

Mr Nazaryan has added that under the Collective Security Treaty, certain steps should be made to prevent a military aggression; but it is not yet known whether this will be a usual statement or whether a peacemaking contingent will be deployed.

Aik Khachikyan, a military expert, told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent that Azerbaijani militaries are in the area of the lake and have climbed Mount Ishkhanasar. "This height ... is of strategic importance," Mr Khachikyan has added, suggesting that there is a threat that this road may be blocked, and Syunik and Karabakh will be cut off from Armenia.

Mr Khachikyan doubts that the current situation can lead to an escalation, since the Armenian party is determined to resolve the problem through diplomatic means.

This article was originally published on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’ on May 14, 2021 at 02:02 am MSK. To access the full text of the article, click here.