Analysts assess Pashinyan's risk of losing post as minimal

Nikol Pashinyan's opponents failed to venture an aggravation of the political crisis; it allowed the Armenian Premier to speed up preparations for the early parliamentary elections. At the same time, Pashinyan managed to draw a part of the members of the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) to his side, which will allow him to undertake the so-called "technical resignation" without any fear to occupy the Premiership again, the political analysts interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot" believe.

The "Caucasian Knot" has reported that on October 11, the Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that he would resign before October 16 in order to dissolve the Parliament and appoint the new parliamentary elections around December 9-10.

"Nikol Pashinyan is confidently speaking about his resignation. The confidence appeared after the statement of 18 MPs, including Republicans, in favour of holding early elections in December. The confidence was strengthened by the agreement signed with Gagik Tsarukyan, the leader of the "Prosperous Armenia" Party (PAP). These two events, in particular, have minimized the risk of a new political confrontation," Stepan Safaryan, a political observer, told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

Nikol Pashinyan managed to start dissolving the parliament without aggravating the political crisis, Armen Badalyan, a political consultant, has stated.

"They managed to agree on a soft scenario. The PAP has signed an agreement guaranteeing the refusal to nominate its candidate and support any other candidate. With some reservations, the ARF 'Dashnaktsutyun' also agreed to hold elections in December. Then, a statement of consent to hold elections in December was signed by 18 former and current members of the RPA; this party has also promised not to nominate and oppose," Mr Badalyan has stated.

Besides, he believes that there is no populism in Prime Minister's statements. "It is a political process. We can't say that Nikol Pashinyan is an unbalanced politician. All his steps were clearly calculated," said Badalyan.

In his opinion, the new authorities should be careful. "Theoretically, there is a risk that everything may divert from the planned scenario, but this risk is minimal. Considering the development of events, I would assess the risk as 0.1%," he has concluded.

This article was originally published on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’ on October 13, 2018 at 04:05 am MSK. To access the full text of the article, click here.