Change of militants' leaders may activate their actions in Northern Caucasus, experts believe

Dokku Umarov, leader of the armed underground in Northern Caucasus, has declared his resignation as "Amir of Imarat Kavkaz", created by him in autumn of 2007, and transfer of the powers to his successor. Experts believe that the change of power among militants may result in sharp increase of separatists' activity in the region.

The "Caucasian Knot" has reported that yesterday the websites of Chechen separatists disseminated information that Dokku Umarov had stated his resignation from the post of "Amir" (commander) of militants and transfer of powers to one of his deputies - Aslambek Vadalov, also known as "Amir Aslambek".

"Umarov's resignation from the post of militants' 'Amir' and delivery of the whole power in 'Imarat Kavkaz' to his successor quite well may indicate a change of tactics and strategy of the armed underground in Northern Caucasus. As a rule, the people who have demonstrated some personal features are becoming militants' leaders. Speaking in modern language, to 'increase his rating', a would-be militants' commander should prepare and commit some resonant actions. Probably, these will be large terror acts, or capture of some objects, or attacks on large settlements, as it was in summer-autumn of 2004. It is also not excluded that the new leader will make some serious structural changes in militants' command. In any case, consequences of the change of power in 'Imarat Kavkaz' may be revealed in the near future, since during the autumn-winter period militants, as a rule, do not undertake active actions," one of Chechen experts believes.

It is remarkable that Dokku Umarov named his poor health as one of the reasons of his resignation from the post of "Amir". The Chechen leadership and power agents use poisoned foodstuffs as the main weapon of struggling against militants. The "Caucasian Knot" wrote that back in 2002 Russian special agents poisoned field commander Amir ibn al-Khattab. In the same way some time ago in the Vedeno District of Chechnya the grouping of militants headed by the Arabian commander Yasir Amarat was liquidated. They say that Dokku Umarov himself could fall victim of poisoning and survived just by a miracle. Probably, after transferring his powers to a younger and vigorous successor, Dokku Umarov will try to go abroad to get some treatment.