Political scientists called the seven-day voting in Kuban unjustified.

Voting in the elections in some districts of Kuban will last seven days, which significantly increases the opportunities for falsifications and reduces the chances of opposition candidates to almost zero, experts interviewed by "Caucasian Knot" stated.

As reported by "Caucasian Knot", according to the decision of the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation, the elections to the State Duma in 2026 will take place over three days - from September 18 to 20. The Central Election Commission allowed a number of regions, including Kuban and the Rostov region, to organize early voting before the three main election days, so in part of the Krasnodar Territory, including Novorossiysk, voting will last seven days (September 14-20).

The goals of organizing seven-day voting in a number of districts of Kuban and the associated risks of falsifications were commented on by political scientists Sergey Zhavoronkov, Mikhail Savva, Alexander Korovainy, as well as a human rights activist and observer who wished to remain unnamed.

Seven days of voting is a direct liquidation of the remnants of institutional control over the procedure, believes Sergey Zhavoronkov. "It is practically impossible to cover independent observation for 168 hours of continuous process, considering the storage of safe packages and night shifts. The reference to the 'frontline' status serves solely as a convenient fig leaf for legalizing total administrative coercion of budget workers and an unhindered ballot stuffing machine," he said.

He is confident that there is no real electoral competition in the classical sense in Kuban. "The entire scenario is scripted in the offices of the regional administration. The only element of unpredictability lies not in inter-party debates, but in the level of protest voting, which the authorities are trying to dilute and drown in the seven-day voting. Potential points of tension are possible only where active grassroots activists from the CPRF or SRZP have emerged," Zhavoronkov pointed out.

The campaign of Vladimir Atamanchuk against Konstantin Zatulin in the Sochi district is considered an important civic statement. "But this is not an equal political duel. Zatulin represents a cemented part of the nomenclature system with unlimited opportunities in administrative resources and media. In the context of a seven-day procedure and the absence of control, rewriting the real choice of the residents of the district will be no trouble for the system. In the current configuration, the chances of opposition candidates to win a mandate in a single-mandate district in Kuban are zero. The Krasnodar Territory has long been turned into a closed electoral anomaly, where the results are strictly cut according to the directives from above," he pointed out.

Extended voting always significantly increases the risks of using administrative resources and complicates independent electoral control, confirmed Mikhail Savva.

"From the perspective of attracting real turnout, this decision looks more like a tool for mobilizing a managed voter (budget workers, employees of large enterprises) than a method of increasing the genuine interest of citizens. The reference to the 'frontline' status of the region serves as a convenient legitimizing pretext, however, from a logistical and human rights perspective, such prolongation of the process only reduces the transparency of the procedures," he told "Caucasian Knot".

Harsh inter-party competition is absent in most districts of the Krasnodar Territory, notes the political scientist.

"The main electoral arrangements were agreed upon even at the stage of nominations. In some districts, for example, in Krasnodar or Slavyansk, a certain imitation of struggle is possible due to protest voting and the activity of candidates from the CPRF, but in the absence of independent control and with multi-day voting, the chances of confusing the cards for systemic candidates are minimized. As for the Sochi district, it is traditionally considered electorally managed, and Konstantin Zatulin has not only absolute recognizability but also strong support from regional and federal elites. The nomination of a representative of the 'Yabloko' party, Vladimir Atamanchuk, carries rather a symbolic and demonstrative character to maintain the opposition agenda. In the current political system and voting format, the real chances for a comeback for the opposition candidate in this district are absent," the expert believes.

Overall, the chances of representatives of opposition parties to obtain mandates in single-mandate districts in the Krasnodar Territory are approaching zero, the political scientist believes. "Kuban historically falls into the so-called environment of administrative control, where the system strictly fixes the result for 'United Russia'. A breakthrough in single-mandate districts without direct agreements with the regional administration is excluded," he emphasized.

The stretching of the voting procedure over seven days directly contributes to the increase in falsifications and is applied by the authorities due to low real ratings, believes former municipal deputy from Yeysk Alexander Korovainy.

"In fact, they can falsify calmly in three days, but voting lasted seven days only for the amendments to the Constitution. Then they came to the same grandmothers at home to vote three or four times, thus collecting votes 'for'. From the perspective of turnout, of course, seven days are unjustified: those who want to vote can easily do so within three days, or even one day. You can vote at your polling station, you can detach and vote elsewhere, so there is absolutely no need for a whole seven days of voting. These are federal elections, while decisions on early voting are local and completely unsubstantiated," Korovainy told "Caucasian Knot".

Early voting will not become a legal reason for the premature termination of candidates' campaigning. "Campaigning will continue during the days when voting is already taking place, there is no ban on this," he explained.

Korovainy believes that the opposition could win against 'United Russia' in a number of districts provided there is mass mobilization of independent observers.

"The main obstacle is falsifications, so observers are very much needed. Observers make elections fair, and there are no consequences for them. There is a district where a representative of the 'New People' party - a drone manufacturer - was recently removed, who independently began to conduct a campaign and actively recruit observers, promising good pay. The 'New People' immediately dropped him at the request of the administration because they expected him to play only the role of a statistician. In this same district, there remains a candidate from the CPRF, Safronov, who will receive all the protest votes and the votes of those who wanted to vote for 'Yabloko'. If polling stations can be closed, the likelihood of Safronov's victory is quite high. He has moderate views and is currently being actively targeted with black PR, as he has chances of winning according to measurements. In the Northern district, candidate Pikta also has chances to beat the United Russia candidate if observers are present, while his competitor, Vrublevsky, is a person connected with the administration, whose task is simply to hinder the opposition," he told "Caucasian Knot".

According to the political scientist, competition is possible in other districts of Krasnodar, as well as in the Sochi district, where the protest electorate may rally around the candidate from 'Yabloko'.

"In other Krasnodar districts, the communists are represented by Shabalkin and Zhilishchikov. Zhilishchikov has a competitor, Besleney from 'Yabloko' - he is a businessman but is currently experiencing financial problems as his counterparties are refusing to work with him under pressure from the authorities and the FSB, which is why he cannot spend enough funds on the campaign. As for the Sochi district, there have traditionally been huge falsifications, so it is safe to go as an observer from 'Yabloko' and candidate Atamanchuk. Zatulin is a very strong candidate; he boasted about the annexation of Crimea and has strong connections. Five years ago, they forced our candidate from 'Yabloko' to withdraw from the elections. This time they do not feel threatened by Atamanchuk, who has no money for the campaign. There are no strong candidates from the CPRF, LDPR, or 'Fair Russia', no one is conducting an active campaign except for Zatulin. All those who are tired of queues at gas stations, rising prices, and tariffs can unite and vote protestingly for Atamanchuk, and then he may win," emphasized Alexander Korovainy.

The chances of non-government candidates obtaining mandates in single-mandate districts directly depend on their ability to protect the results at polling stations, the political scientist concluded.

"Where there will be no observers, 'United Russia' will hold the victory through ballot stuffing. Where there will be observers and it will be possible to maintain the result, the communists may win as more vivid representatives of the opposition, and there are some chances for the Yabloko candidates. 'New People' also nominated bright candidates, but their most active representative was removed from the elections - which means the party has no interest in winning, there is an agreement with the presidential administration on strictly defined results, and they will not fight for their result," concluded Alexander Korovainy.

A human rights activist and election observer, who requested not to be named, shares the opinion that early voting in certain areas significantly reduces the transparency of elections.

"In the Krasnodar Territory, early voting will last not in all districts, but only in some, according to the decisions of territorial commissions. Overall, early voting is a very bad story because it reduces the possibilities for public control. Ballots, just like during three-day voting, remain without observation during the night between voting days, and there are all grounds to believe that this creates opportunities for increasing the risk of falsifications," the expert told "Caucasian Knot".

According to him, early voting does not limit the rights of candidates to conduct election work. "Restrictions for campaigning only apply at the time of the main voting, while during early voting, the campaign will still be ongoing - both in the media and with the distribution of campaign printed materials, with banners and everything else," the expert explained.

He also notes that real inter-party competition in single-mandate districts of the region is practically not observed, which corresponds to the general trend across Russia.

"If we talk about the nine districts in Kuban, we can generally say that there is no competition in sight. This situation is characteristic of the entire country: 'United Russia' nominated candidates in 222 districts out of 225, leaving three districts without their representatives for agreed candidates from other forces. In the Krasnodar Territory, the only interesting district where there is a living candidate is where Alexander Safronov, a deputy of the Krasnodar City Duma and a long-time leader of the protest wing of the CPRF, is nominated. They are trying to organize observation, so this is probably the only one of the nine districts where some of the Kuban United Russia members risk not being elected," the expert told "Caucasian Knot".

The chances of the 'Yabloko' candidate Vladimir Atamanchuk in the confrontation with the incumbent deputy Konstantin Zatulin in the Sochi district are assessed as extremely low.

"Zatulin is a long-time deputy from this district, and he has already been elected from it amid scandals. If we look at the archives of the elections of 2016 or 2021, we can recall how he pressured the Yabloko candidate Kuznetsov from Belorechensk, the editor-in-chief of the local newspaper, forcing him to withdraw from the elections. With all due respect, I do not see any chances for Atamanchuk to have the resources and opportunities to pose real competition to Zatulin," concluded the human rights activist.

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